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Weather signals for prediction markets
Daily temperature forecasts for Polymarket weather markets.
We run 120+ ensemble members across 3 models against the live weather books on Polymarket, for the 15 stations we read best. The finished forecast is on your dashboard with every run, and it is filed with its outcome the next morning whether it won or lost.
Every result on the recordOur own model, three global ensemblesPay securely in crypto
90.4%
settled in our top three
77.1%
settled in our top two
42.2%
our first pick, exactly
15
stations we sell
120+
ensemble members
Over the last 30 days, across the fifteen stations we sell.
The ranking
We sell the cities we read best. The record decides which.
Every station is ranked by how often the settling bucket was one of the two we named. Single is the top 3, Pro the top 15.
Single · any 3 of thesePro · all 15top-2 rate
1MadridLEMD · Barajas · °C88.6%Single
2SingaporeWSSS · Changi · °C86.1%Single
3WellingtonNZWN · Intl · °C84%Single
4HelsinkiEFHK · Vantaa · °C83.2%Pro
5MunichEDDM · Franz Josef · °C81%Pro
6AnkaraLTAC · Esenboga · °C80.2%Pro
7MiamiKMIA · Intl · °F79.4%Pro
8ShanghaiZSPD · Pudong · °C77.9%Pro
9AtlantaKATL · Hartsfield · °F77.5%Pro
10Kuala LumpurWMKK · Intl · °C77.2%Pro
11ParisLFPB · Le Bourget · °C76.2%Pro
12HoustonKHOU · Hobby · °F74.5%Pro
13AustinKAUS · Bergstrom · °F74.5%Pro
14Mexico CityMMMX · Juarez · °C70.3%Pro
15Los AngelesKLAX · Intl · °F69.6%Pro
How it works
Three things happen, 4 times a day.
None of them require anything from you except an account.
01
The ensemble runs
122 versions of tomorrow's atmosphere across 3 models, each started from a slightly different guess about today. Where they end up gives the probability. How far apart they end up says how much that probability is worth trusting.
02
It is priced against the book
Our probability is compared with what the market is charging at that moment, under the same rounding the exchange settles on. A forecast on its own is trivia. A forecast next to a price is either an opportunity or a reason to stay out.
03
You get the finished forecast
Every station on your plan, every run, 4 times a day: the mean, the spread, the integer the exchange will read off, our probability and the price. When the gap is wide enough the message says so and the call goes on the record.
Track record
Scored every morning, week by week.
Week by week: how often the settling bucket was one of our three, and one of our two, across the 15 stations we sell.
settled in our top threesettled in our top twoweeks start Monday · a short first or last week is drawn, and marked
Strongest stations
The same three that lead the ranking above, measured the same way.
A top-two rate is not a hit rate on a bet: it says the settling bucket was one of the two we named, and the two are adjacent, so it measures how tightly the forecast is bracketed rather than promising anything about a single position. The full breakdown, every station, is on the track record. Past rates describe what already happened and predict nothing.
Pricing, in dollars
Two plans. No card, no auto-renewal, no retention call.
Priced in dollars, settled on chain in stablecoin or bitcoin at the rate quoted. When the term ends, access stops.
SINGLE
Three cities, the ones you trade
$19.99
billed once for 1 month
3 cities you choose, from the 15 we sell. For following a few markets properly rather than fifteen you skim.
3 citieschoose any 3 of these
- 1MadridLEMD
- 2SingaporeWSSS
- 3WellingtonNZWN
- 4HelsinkiEFHK
- 5MunichEDDM
- 6AnkaraLTAC
- 7MiamiKMIA
- 8ShanghaiZSPD
- 9AtlantaKATL
- 10Kuala LumpurWMKK
- 11ParisLFPB
- 12HoustonKHOU
- 13AustinKAUS
- 14Mexico CityMMMX
- 15Los AngelesKLAX
- Three cities you choose, from the fifteen we sell
- Full dashboard: the run, the spread, the book, the settlement rounding
- The complete resolution history, wins and losses both
- Every city on your dashboard, refreshed each run
- Afternoon 12z revisions
Another city, chosen the same way, up to 15$9.99 each
most chosen
PRO
The whole board, and the revisions
$49.99
billed once for 1 month
All 15 we sell, with the afternoon revisions. Everything we are willing to sell.
15 citiesall of them, ranked
- 1MadridLEMD
- 2SingaporeWSSS
- 3WellingtonNZWN
- 4HelsinkiEFHK
- 5MunichEDDM
- 6AnkaraLTAC
- 7MiamiKMIA
- 8ShanghaiZSPD
- 9AtlantaKATL
- 10Kuala LumpurWMKK
- 11ParisLFPB
- 12HoustonKHOU
- 13AustinKAUS
- 14Mexico CityMMMX
- 15Los AngelesKLAX
- All fifteen cities we sell, in ranking order
- Full dashboard: the run, the spread, the book, the settlement rounding
- The complete resolution history, wins and losses both
- Every city on your dashboard, refreshed each run
- Afternoon 12z revisions on every city
- A direct line for questions about any call we made
Six months works out at$38.33 a month
One-time paymentNo subscription, ever.No card storedPay in stablecoin or bitcoin.Access ends automaticallyWhen the term ends.
Payment
Five steps, one payment.
No card, no auto-renewal, no retention call.
- 01
Choose a plan and a term
Single or Pro, one, three or six months. Priced in dollars, from $19.99.
- 02
Get your payment details
A single-use address and the exact amount, locked for fifteen minutes.
- 03
Pay from your own wallet
USDC, USDT or bitcoin, on ten networks. You send; we never hold keys.
- 04
Confirmation on chain
The network confirms. No card, nothing stored, nothing to cancel later.
- 05
Access opens
The dashboard unlocks and you get your bot code. When the term ends, access ends.
USDCUSDTBTCBaseSolanaTronBitcoin$ USD pricing
What you are actually paying for
Forecasts are easy. Accountable, priced forecasts are not.
| Capability | Free weather app | Signal group | PolyTemp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probability, not a single number | No | Rarely | Yes |
| Model spread shown | No | No | Yes |
| Priced against the live book | No | Sometimes | Every call |
| Losing calls kept on the record | N/A | Almost never | All of them |
| The forecast arrives on quiet days too | Yes | No | Every run |
| Takes custody of your money | N/A | Often | Never |
| Auto-renews without asking | Yes | Yes | No card held |
included inconsistent not offered against you
See the verified recordFAQ
Questions worth asking before you pay.
No. PolyTemp publishes forecast data on your dashboard and nothing else. We never take custody of funds, never connect to your exchange account, and never execute a position. What you do with a forecast is entirely your decision.
The fifteen we are best at. Every station is ranked by its verified record, and the top fifteen are the ones we sell. Pro is all fifteen and follows the ranking as it moves. Single is three of them, and you choose which three; each extra city is $9.99 for the term, up to fifteen. What you chose stays yours even if the ranking shifts. The current order is on the track record page for anyone to check.
A phone app gives you one number. We run an ensemble, so you get a probability and a spread, meaning how much the model disagrees with itself, and then we price that probability against the live market under the same rounding the exchange settles on. A forecast without a market price attached is not a signal.
Every forecast is frozen before the day starts and filed with its outcome the next morning, win or lose. The record is public on the track record page before you pay anything, and the station ranking that decides what each plan includes is published with the sample behind every figure.
Prices are in US dollars. At checkout we quote the amount in the coin you picked at the rate of the moment, hold that rate for fifteen minutes, and open your plan as soon as the payment confirms on chain.
Access stops and nothing renews, because we hold no card and no allowance. Your dashboard tells you seven days out, in case you want another term.
Twenty-nine, on four continents, and the plans sell the best fifteen of them. Each one is the specific station the market settles on, which is not always the airport you would guess: London is City, not Heathrow, and New York is LaGuardia, not Central Park. The full list, with the ones outside the top fifteen, is on the coverage page.
Subscribing to forecast data is straightforward almost everywhere; trading event contracts is not. Prediction markets are restricted or banned in several jurisdictions and the rules change often. Check your own before you subscribe. That part is on you, and we would rather say so plainly.
Start on the cheapest plan and make us prove it.
Our best 3 for $19.99, the full dashboard, and a record you can read in its entirety before you decide whether the second month is worth it.